Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
